Round 2 of Euro 2020 gets underway today, my previous post showed that my prediction model is doing pretty well, so here are the latest predictions.
|Fixture||‘Team 1’ win||Draw||‘Team 2’ win|
|Finland vs Russia||33.4%||34.1%||32.5%|
|Turkey vs Wales||25.2%||32.7%||42.1%|
|Italy vs Switzerland||54.5%||26.2%||19.3%|
|Ukraine vs North Macedonia||77.8%||18.1%||4.1%|
|Denmark vs Belgium||19.1%||22.8%||58.1%|
|Netherlands vs Austria||65.1%||24.2%||10.7%|
|Sweden vs Slovakia||66.5%||24.5%||9.0%|
|Croatia vs Czech Republic||34.9%||33.4%||31.7%|
|England vs Scotland||86.1%||11.8%||2.1%|
|Hungary vs France||3.2%||12.5%||84.3%|
|Portugal vs Germany||54.4%||25.1%||20.5%|
|Spain vs Poland||72.7%||20.0%||7.3%|
Also, following the Round 1 results we can update our predictions for winner of the tournament:
You can see France are still the clear favourites for the tournament, and this has been significantly increased by their win over Germany in Round 1. The only other real notable change is in the other direction for Denmark. We all know what horrible event occurred during the Denmark vs Finland game, and obviously the model doesn’t have any ‘visibility’ of that kind of thing, but the loss to Finland impacts their chances of getting through the group and therefore reducing their overall chances in the tournament.