Match Outcome Probabilities Calculator
Compare the latest team ratings to estimate home-win, draw and away-win probabilities.
Loading team ratings…
Chance of each result
Hover or tap a bar for the estimate. You can scroll the page normally on mobile.
These are model estimates, not guarantees. They use each club’s latest recorded rating and the current year’s home-advantage adjustment, without accounting for line-ups or injuries. Historical or inactive clubs use their last recorded rating.
Ratings from the English football results database. Explore ratings over time or head-to-head results.
Football match outcome probabilities
Estimate the chances of a home win, draw or away win using each team’s latest recorded strength rating. Home and away are different roles: swapping the clubs changes the home-advantage contribution. The three probabilities sum to 100% before display rounding.
How the calculation works
The calculator uses my Bayesian football team-strength model and the ranked version of the English league results database. Ratings are updated from league results; the probability calculation includes the current year’s home-advantage adjustment. Read the historical home-advantage analysis for context.
These are model estimates, not betting odds or guarantees. They do not account for current line-ups, injuries or every other match-specific factor. An inactive club uses its last recorded rating, so comparisons involving historical teams should be treated as illustrative.
Try Arsenal at home to Liverpool, then swap the venue. To understand how those strengths evolved, plot team ratings over time. To compare past results instead of predicted outcomes, use the head-to-head calculator.