Welcome to my website, I am Professor of Space Environment at the University of Birmingham, Head of the SERENE research group and occasional analyst of things that probably didn't require analysing.
Here you will find articles, datasets and interactive tools covering football statistics, mathematics, space weather and assorted quantitative curiosities.
You can find more detailed information on the following links, including some of my favourite articles, or read my most recent posts below.
Recent articles
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How long until a double hat-trick in the Premier League?
No player has scored six goals in a single Premier League match - how surprising is that?
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Space Weather - The Musical
Listen to the May 2024 geomagnetic superstorm as a piano score, with pitch, rhythm and dynamics derived from real solar and geomagnetic indices.
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Who wins in a 48 team World Cup - Panini
Who is the biggest winner of the new, larger, 48 team World Cup? Panini, with the increase in the numbers of stickers to complete their album.
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When Good Ideas Don't Survive Contact With Data - A December Football Myth Tested
Every so often I come up with what feels like a good idea for a blog post. But they don't always work out, this is the story of my investigations into the congested English football December schedule and whether it gives certain teams an advantage.
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Christmas Day Football - The Lost Tradition
It's been exactly 60 years since the last English league match was played on Christmas Day. Here’s a look back at how Christmas Day football began, what made it special, and why it came to an end.
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How to Calculate League Position Probabilities
How football team-strength ratings become league-position probabilities, explaining the original analytical approach and the current simulation-based tool.
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Tracking Football Team Strengths with a Bayesian Kalman Model
How a Bayesian extended Kalman filter estimates English football team strengths, uncertainty and match probabilities from historical league results.
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Football Bogey Grounds and How Statistics Can Prove Them
Can a football club actually have a statistically verifiable football bogey ground or is it just bad luck?
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Why Our Next Big Solar Storm Warning Could Still Be a Guess
Accurate space-weather forecasting will always involve uncertainty, but it need not remain dominated by blind spots. The November storm was a reminder that our current system can predict the possibility of major events yet cannot confirm their true character until it is almost too late.
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40 points to avoid relegation?
Are 40 points enough to avoid Premier League relegation? Compare historical survival thresholds and the probability of staying up at different points totals.
- mathematics
- football
- code
- spaceWeather
- misc
- MathsOnAMug
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