Euro 2020 – Round 2 Predictions

Round 2 of Euro 2020 gets underway today, my previous post showed that my prediction model is doing pretty well, so here are the latest predictions.

Fixture‘Team 1’ winDraw‘Team 2’ win
Finland vs Russia33.4%34.1%32.5%
Turkey vs Wales25.2%32.7%42.1%
Italy vs Switzerland54.5%26.2%19.3%
Ukraine vs North Macedonia77.8%18.1%4.1%
Denmark vs Belgium19.1%22.8%58.1%
Netherlands vs Austria65.1%24.2%10.7%
Sweden vs Slovakia66.5%24.5%9.0%
Croatia vs Czech Republic34.9%33.4%31.7%
England vs Scotland86.1%11.8%2.1%
Hungary vs France3.2%12.5%84.3%
Portugal vs Germany54.4%25.1%20.5%
Spain vs Poland72.7%20.0%7.3%
Round 2 Predictions

Also, following the Round 1 results we can update our predictions for winner of the tournament:

Euro 2020 win probabilities (on completion of Round 1)
Changes in win probabilities

You can see France are still the clear favourites for the tournament, and this has been significantly increased by their win over Germany in Round 1. The only other real notable change is in the other direction for Denmark. We all know what horrible event occurred during the Denmark vs Finland game, and obviously the model doesn’t have any ‘visibility’ of that kind of thing, but the loss to Finland impacts their chances of getting through the group and therefore reducing their overall chances in the tournament.

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