I am Professor of Space Environment at the University of Birmingham and lead the Space Environment and Radio Engineering (SERENE) research group. My work uses mathematical modelling to understand the space environment and improve forecasts of its effects on technology.

This is the accessible side of that work: explanations of solar storms and their consequences, the statistics of rare events, modelling resources, and occasional experiments in communicating the data differently. For academic work, see my publications, University research profile and ORCID record.

Start here: space weather and everyday technology

• Solar flares: how worried should we be? — my Scientific American explainer.
• The Northern Lights and technology’s vulnerability — the connection between beautiful aurora and technological disruption.
• Why we need a better space-weather warning system — communicating the difference between severe storms and exceptional events.

Extreme events and uncertainty

The extreme value theory explainer introduces the statistical tools used to study rare solar flares and geomagnetic activity. It provides background for why major solar storms can arrive close together and why a major storm warning can still involve substantial uncertainty.

Modelling the upper atmosphere

Read about the AENeAS modelling suite and its deployment for upper-atmosphere forecasting. For the mathematics behind combining observations with a model, explore my Ensemble Kalman filter notes and examples.

Operational products, model information and group research are available on the SERENE research website. This personal site is not an operational warning service.

Hearing the data

Space Weather — The Musical turns the May 2024 geomagnetic storm into a reproducible piano score. It is an alternative way of following the structure, escalation and recovery of a disturbed space environment.

Browse every space-weather article or visit mathematics and statistics for more of the underlying ideas.