Position probabilities for the season.

Based on seeded Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures. Each simulation samples an uncertain strength for each team and holds it constant across that team’s remaining matches. More matches remaining allow that shared uncertainty to have a larger effect on the final table.

English football league-position probabilities

This league table predictor estimates where clubs could finish by combining the current season’s results, team-strength ratings and simulated remaining fixtures. Each row shows a distribution over finishing places, rather than one supposedly certain final position.

How the forecast is made

The tool simulates the remaining fixtures using team ratings that learn from both results and winning margins. The new article, Does a 4–0 Win Tell Us More Than a 1–0 Win?, explains the update and its historical validation, building on the original Bayesian rating model and the English league results database.

Each simulated season draws one uncertain strength for each team and holds it fixed across that team’s remaining matches. This gives a wider range of possible finishes when much of the season remains: a team that is stronger than our estimate can perform better across many games together. The league-position methodology article explains this uncertainty and the simulator’s random tie-breaks on points. Simulations use a fixed random seed for reproducibility; the page displays the season and update information for the available forecast.

Groups such as top six and bottom three summarise finishing-place probabilities; they are not a complete model of promotion, play-offs or competition-specific relegation rules. Simulation estimates are not guarantees, and small displayed probabilities may reflect rounding or the finite number of simulated seasons. Check the update information before treating a forecast as current.

Historical tables or predictions?

Use this page for possible future finishes. Use the historical league-table generator for standings reconstructed from matches already played. The article on the 40-point relegation benchmark provides historical context for why survival is not tied to a universal points target.

More football analysis and tools.