Position probabilities for the season.

Based on seeded Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, assuming team strengths remain constant.

English football league-position probabilities

This league table predictor estimates where clubs could finish by combining the current season’s results, team-strength ratings and simulated remaining fixtures. Each row shows a distribution over finishing places, rather than one supposedly certain final position.

How the forecast is made

The current tool uses seeded Monte Carlo simulations, with fixed team strengths and random tie-breaks on points. The league-position methodology article describes the original analytical approach and notes this change. Team strengths come from the Bayesian football rating model, using the historical English league results database. The page displays the season and update information associated with the available forecast.

Groups such as top six and bottom three summarise finishing-place probabilities; they are not a complete model of promotion, play-offs or competition-specific relegation rules. Simulation estimates are not guarantees, and small displayed probabilities may reflect rounding or the finite number of simulated seasons. Check the update information before treating a forecast as current.

Historical tables or predictions?

Use this page for possible future finishes. Use the historical league-table generator for standings reconstructed from matches already played. The article on the 40-point relegation benchmark provides historical context for why survival is not tied to a universal points target.

More football analysis and tools.