Quick update on the World Cup model following the 2nd round of group fixtures.
After the 2nd round of fixtures my model has a Brier score of 0.471, but the Bookies are just in front with 0.469 (although I don’t think the differences are statistically significant, yet). The updated probabilities for winning the World Cup now look like this:
I’ve taken off the teams with 0% chance (teams which cannot progress to the next round of the competition). The differences from last time look like this:
A big increase (~4%) for Portugal and large, expected, decreases for Denmark and Argentina. England also have a surprisingly large drop and go down to 8th favourites for the tournament. The impressive performance of Colombia, a potential Round of 16 opponent the likely change here. Interestingly the model actually predicts England have a slightly lower chance (~0.5%) of winning the World Cup than before the tournament began, even though they have maximum points from their opening fixtures.